Updated October 17, 2023By Daniel Feliciano
The NFL is back for Week 7 of the 2023 season as the New Orleans Saints play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Caesars Superdome.
The Saints have so far had a mixed season earning a 3-3 record from their six games, while the Jaguars have had a slightly better time of things with a 4-2 record having won each of their last three games in a row.
We’ll take a look at the match-up and provide you with our best free NFL betting picks to see if we can earn you some extra cash while you take in the action on the field.
Sbs New Orleans Saints Favorites To Beat Jacksonville Jaguars In Nfl Week 7
New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars information
Thursday, 19 October 2023
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
20:15 ET kick-off
Season so far
New Orleans have had a very mixed start to the season going 3-3 in their opening six games, and they’ve failed to really pick up any momentum in that time.
The Saints opened the season with a 16-15 win over the Tennessee Titans, seeing off an attempted fourth-quarter comeback on home turf for the victory. That was followed up with another win against the Carolina Panthers with a 20-17 scoreline, as they once again held firm despite a late rally from their opponents.
That was followed up by a 18-17 defeat to the Green Bay Packers, with all 18 of Green Bay’s points coming in the fourth quarter as their late collapses finally caught up to them. They then took on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and were thumped 26-9, with the Saints failing to score a single touchdown in the game.
They bounced back with a huge 34-0 win over the New England Patriots in week 5, but fell to another defeat last time out against the Houston Texans with a 20-13 score.
Jacksonville have had a more successful run in recent weeks after they initially opened the season up with a 1-2 record.
Week 1 ended in a 31-21 win over the Indianapolis Colts thanks to 14 unanswered points in the fourth-quarter, before a 17-19 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs and a 37-17 defeat to the Houston Texans in week 2 and week 3.
Since then though they have bounced back with great results defeating the Atlanta Falcons 23-7, the Buffalo Bills 25-20 and then the Colts again in a high-scoring 37-20 game last time out with a highly impressive second and third-quarter performance.
NFL Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 @ -115
Both of these teams have been very underwhelming so far this season. The Saints had one of the most friendly opening schedules in the NFL, yet they are averaging under 20 points per game and are 3-3. On the other hand, the Jaguars are 4-2 but have shown very poor offensive decision-making caused by their offensive line issues.
Both teams have had extenuating circumstances that led them to this point, with the Saints having a bunch of injuries, most notably Derek Carr‘s shoulder issue which continues to be a problem. Both teams are close to returning to their usual standing though, and that should see the quality of their games rise in time.
On paper, this looks to be a matchup where both teams could score a lot. The strengths of both teams lie in their ability to run the football, with Travis Etienne and Alvin Kamara particularly interesting for their respective teams.
That complicates things as Jacksonville ranks fifth and the Saints rank 10th when it comes to Defensive Rushing DVOA across the entire NFL. That means both teams are likely to need to drop back to pass more often, giving a hefty advantage to Jacksonville since they rank 11th in offensive passing DVOA, whereas the Saints rank 21st.
The Saints could keep this close, but I’m predicting that between Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, the Jaguars will be able to do enough damage offensively to take this game despite being on the road.
The Saints currently play the second-most frequent amount of man coverage in the NFL, and against man, Kirk has a 32% target share this season and far outpaces Ridley in terms of getting looks from Trevor Lawrence.
The Jaguars to win on the moneyline is a great bet, but cover yourself a little bit more by backing them to cover the +3 spread and get a decent return on the upset.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3to beat New Orleans Saints
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NFL Picks: Over 38.5 total points @ -110
The Saints and Jaguars are averaging around 20 points per game, but each has the offensive personnel to make this a really high scoring game.
I will look for the Jaguars to be aggressive through the air, and in return, the Saints can chase with Chris Olave and Michael Thomas.
When you look at the way the season has gone so far for both teams this points total has hit on five out of 12 occasions, with a lot of action coming late on in games. But the reality is that both of these teams have strengths where the other has weaknesses and that means points.
At -110 it’s a good value bet for anyone looking to take in the action and enjoy the game, and has a great chance of landing too.
Over 38.5 total pointsNew Orleans Saints v Jacksonville Jaguars
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About the Author
A soccer and MMA fanatic who believes the eye test far outweighs statistics, apart from when it comes to betting. With experience writing for several years, Daniel is an avid sports fan but also enjoys obstacle courses, music and views from a height.
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